Water Crux MageTier 1
at Store Championship Marzo
decks
1
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-1-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.9%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1276
· median 1276
· range 1276–1276
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1115
Q1 1161
Q3 1262
1278
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 22.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Fire Kongming | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
