← Store Championship Marzo

Wind Crux LorraineTier 2

at Store Championship Marzo

decks
2 (22.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6 3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.5% avg ELO +1.3 per match
expected value
50.0% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.8% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1187 · median 1187 · range 1154–1220 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1115 Q1 1161 Q3 1262 1278
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Aggro 11.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.7% +17.1
Fire Arcane 11.1% 0
Fire Kongming 11.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.2% -12.5
Water Byakko 11.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.8% +17.2
Water Crux Mage 11.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.8% +17.2
Wind Chess 11.1% 0
Wind Seiryuu 11.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.9% -16.1
Wind Wakeup Combo 11.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.6% -15.0
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Wind Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 49 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 49 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Aesan Protector -1.00 0 1 0
Water Resonance Bauble +1.00 1 0 0
Shred to Ribbons -1.00 0 1 0
Fire Resonance Bauble +1.00 1 0 0
Weaponsmith +1.00 1 0 0
Lurking Assailant +1.00 1 0 0
Displace -1.00 0 1 0
Lorraine, Spirit Ruler +1.00 1 0 0
Sword of Shadows +1.00 1 0 0
Wind Cutter +1.00 1 0 0
Windrider Vanguard +1.00 1 0 0
Spirit Blade: Ensoul -1.00 0 1 0
Cry for Help -1.00 0 1 0
Hurricane Sweep -1.00 0 1 0
Crux Sight +1.00 1 0 0
Inert Sword +1.00 1 0 0
Spirit's Blessing +1.00 1 0 0
Stalwart Shieldmate -1.00 0 1 0
Wind Resonance Bauble +1.00 1 0 0
Favorable Winds +1.00 1 0 0
Clean Cut +1.00 1 0 0
Safeguard Amulet -1.00 0 1 0
Fairy Whispers -1.00 0 1 0
The Looking Glass +1.00 1 0 0
Spirit Blade: Ascension +1.00 1 0 0
Votive Runeblade -1.00 0 1 0
Tactful Sergeant +1.00 1 0 0
Zephyr's Edge -1.00 0 1 0
Rally the Peasants -1.00 0 1 0
Reclaim +1.00 1 0 0
Esteemed Knight +1.00 1 0 0
Banner Knight +1.00 1 0 0
Shimmercloak Assassin +1.00 1 0 0
Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge -1.00 0 1 0
Adept Swordmaster -1.00 0 1 0
Expeditious Opening -1.00 0 1 0
Extortion Scheme -1.00 0 1 0
Honorable Vanguard +1.00 1 0 0
Windmill Engineer -1.00 0 1 0
Spirit Blade: Infusion -1.00 0 1 0
Ornamental Greatsword +1.00 1 0 0
Shu Frontliner +1.00 1 0 0
Regenerate -1.00 0 1 0
Phalanx Captain +1.00 1 0 0
Bladed Riftseer +1.00 1 0 0
Tariff Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Brisk Windtrotter -1.00 0 1 0
Zephyr +1.00 1 0 0
Prismatic Edge +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/47651/archetypes/Wind Crux Lorraine