Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at 3/8ストアチャンピオンシップ
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.4%
avg ELO -7.4 per match
expected value
42.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1233
· median 1233
· range 1233–1233
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1095
Q1 1217
Q3 1459
1597
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 18.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
