Water FractalTier 2
at 3/8ストアチャンピオンシップ
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
5-2-0
overall winrate
71.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.9%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
48.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1597
· median 1597
· range 1597–1597
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1095
Q1 1217
Q3 1459
1597
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 18.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.7% | -15.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.8% | +10.4 |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
