EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Inferno Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
2nd
Wind Crux Lorraine
57.0%
↓ low
1st
Wind Luxem Assassin
59.0%
↑ top
3rd
Fire Umbra Ciel
56.5%
↑ top
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 90.0% | 60.1% | 59.0% | 56.1% | 1388 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 70.0% | 64.1% | 57.0% | 56.4% | 1172 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 70.0% | 66.5% | 56.5% | 58.4% | 1378 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.9% | 2 | 50.0% | 48.5% | 50.0% | 49.1% | 1405 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Suited | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 50.0% | 45.7% | 50.0% | 49.3% | 1430 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Aetherwing | 5 | 29.4% | 12 | 45.8% | 46.8% | 49.3% | 50.1% | 1282 | — |
| 7 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.3% | 48.8% | 51.5% | 1176 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Tera Silvie | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 30.0% | 44.7% | 46.3% | 48.5% | 1160 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 11.8% | 9 | 44.4% | 38.2% | 46.1% | 41.4% | 1385 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 40.0% | 50.4% | 45.4% | 49.3% | 1183 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.9% | 1 | 0.0% | 42.3% | 40.0% | 42.3% | 1272 | — |
| 12 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 5.9% | 1 | 0.0% | 44.8% | 40.0% | 44.8% | 1250 | — |