← Grand Archive Store champion 14 /3/2026

Fire Crux MageTier 2

at Grand Archive Store champion 14 /3/2026

decks
2 (11.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7 1-5-1
overall winrate
21.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.0% avg ELO -7.1 per match
expected value
41.1% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.8% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1309 · median 1309 · range 1264–1354 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
999 Q1 1264 Q3 1456 1513
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Aetherwing 17.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.9% -6.5
Fire Umbra Guardian 11.8% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 11.8% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 32.6% -16.7
Wind Shadowstrike 11.8% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 46.5% -3.4
Fire Aggro 5.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.1% +6.5
Water Allies 5.9% 0
Water Fractal 5.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.2% -9.3
Water Luxem Assassin 5.9% 0
Wind Allies 5.9% 0
Wind Seiryuu 5.9% 0
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand +1.00 1 0 0
Fragmented Spirit of Fire -1.00 0 1 0
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin -1.00 0 1 0
Spurn to Ash -1.00 0 1 0
Sword of Shadows -1.00 0 1 0
Sword of Seeking +1.00 1 0 0
Gentle Respite -1.00 0 1 0
Unmake Duality +1.00 1 0 0
Sudden Steel +1.00 1 0 0
Fast Cure +1.00 1 0 0
Safeguard Amulet +1.00 1 0 0
Spirit Blade: Ascension +1.00 1 0 0
Immolation Trap -1.00 0 1 0
Unyielding Wraithguard -1.00 0 1 0
Library Witch +1.00 1 0 0
Topsy Decree +1.00 1 0 0
Reduce to Ash +1.00 1 0 0
Spirit of Fire +1.00 1 0 0
Undeniable Truth -1.00 0 1 0
Stolen Chance -1.00 0 1 0
Incarnate Majesty -1.00 0 1 0
Nimue, Cursed Touch +1.00 1 0 0
Fluffy Shopkeep +1.00 1 0 0
Reprogram +1.00 1 0 0
Varuckan Acolyte -1.00 0 1 0
Tariff Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Protect Her At All Costs +1.00 1 0 0
Flared Iridescence -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/47780/archetypes/Fire Crux Mage