← Grand Archive Store champion 14 /3/2026
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Grand Archive Store champion 14 /3/2026
decks
2
(11.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-5-0
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.6%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
48.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1380
· median 1380
· range 1278–1482
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
999
Q1 1264
Q3 1456
1513
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 17.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.7% | -22.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.1% | -6.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
