← Grand Archive Store champion 14 /3/2026
Water FractalTier 1
at Grand Archive Store champion 14 /3/2026
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.5%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
55.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1409
· median 1409
· range 1409–1409
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
999
Q1 1264
Q3 1456
1513
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 17.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
