Water AetherwingTier 1
at PTM 店家冠軍賽
decks
2
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-4-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.7%
avg ELO +1.6 per match
expected value
57.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1521
· median 1521
· range 1348–1694
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1090
Q1 1161
Q3 1424
1694
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 19.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.7% | +8.3 |
| Water Fractal | 11.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Water Genbu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -22.0 |
| Water Neos | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 32.7% | -27.6 |
| Wind Jin | 3.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.8% | +8.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 51.3% | +1.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
