Water FractalTier 1
at PTM 店家冠軍賽
decks
3
(11.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
10-6-1
overall winrate
61.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.3%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
53.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1364
· median 1435
· range 1090–1568
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1090
Q1 1161
Q3 1424
1694
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 19.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.4% | +3.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.5% | -4.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Water Genbu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.5% | +5.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.6% | +6.3 |
| Water Neos | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Water Slimes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 38.7% | -10.8 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
