← PTM 店家冠軍賽

Water FractalTier 1

at PTM 店家冠軍賽

decks
3 (11.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17 10-6-1
overall winrate
61.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.3% avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
53.0% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1364 · median 1435 · range 1090–1568 (3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1090 Q1 1161 Q3 1424 1694
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Shadowstrike 19.2% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 54.4% +3.3
Fire Crux Lorraine 11.5% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 45.5% -4.4
Water Aetherwing 7.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.4% -15.4
Water Genbu 7.7% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 3.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.9% -1.0
Fire Oblation 3.8% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 55.5% +5.2
Fire Suzaku 3.8% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 56.6% +6.3
Water Neos 3.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.9% +7.8
Water Slimes 3.8% 0
Wind Allies 3.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.1% +8.2
Wind Astra Cleric 3.8% 0
Wind Jin 3.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.2% -12.6
Wind Razorgale 3.8% 0
Wind Seiryuu 3.8% 0
Wind Umbra Ranger 3.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 38.7% -10.8
Decklists · 3 from this event

The 3 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

JSON: /api/events/47885/archetypes/Water Fractal