← Mar 21 - Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Store Championship Event
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Mar 21 - Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Store Championship Event
decks
2
(18.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
5-4-0
overall winrate
55.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.7%
avg ELO +4.5 per match
expected value
51.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1172
· median 1172
· range 1144–1201
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1049
Q1 1173
Q3 1259
1420
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 45.6% | -4.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.8% | +10.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
