← Mar 21 - Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Store Championship Event
Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Mar 21 - Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Store Championship Event
decks
1
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.3%
avg ELO -3.0 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1269
· median 1269
· range 1269–1269
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1049
Q1 1173
Q3 1259
1420
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 18.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -19.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
