← Mar 21 - Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Store Championship Event
Water FractalTier 2
at Mar 21 - Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Store Championship Event
decks
1
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.9%
avg ELO +2.8 per match
expected value
48.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1249
· median 1249
· range 1249–1249
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1049
Q1 1173
Q3 1259
1420
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 18.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.0 |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
