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Water AetherwingTier 1
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Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 15.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.6% | -1.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 15.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.2% | +4.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.7% | +7.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Byakko | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.7 |
| Wind Nico | 5.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Charge the Soul | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Drown in Aether | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Diana, Haunt Reminiscence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trivariate Dream | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refreshing Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |