EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Toy Corner Store Champs.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 2 | 10.0% | 10 | 75.0% | 62.7% | 57.1% | 55.0% | 1307 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 10.0% | 8 | 62.5% | 60.9% | 53.2% | 53.7% | 1297 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Horse and Taxes | 3 | 15.0% | 15 | 63.3% | 60.3% | 52.8% | 53.0% | 1307 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 10.0% | 10 | 60.0% | 51.4% | 50.5% | 48.8% | 1368 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 48.4% | 49.6% | 47.0% | 1379 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 50.0% | 47.6% | 49.4% | 48.6% | 1222 | — |
| 7 | Slimes | 2 | 10.0% | 8 | 43.8% | 55.9% | 48.5% | 51.8% | 1141 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 50.0% | 45.1% | 47.5% | 45.9% | 1335 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Suited | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 50.0% | 50.7% | 47.1% | 47.6% | 1157 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Neos | 1 | 5.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 41.3% | 43.8% | 45.7% | 1207 | — |
| 11 | Fire Exia | 1 | 5.0% | 4 | 12.5% | 30.8% | 41.7% | 41.1% | 1163 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Crux Merlin | 1 | 5.0% | 4 | 12.5% | 33.7% | 41.2% | 42.5% | 1011 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 5.0% | 1 | 0.0% | 41.5% | 40.0% | 41.5% | 1183 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 5.0% | 4 | 0.0% | 34.2% | 36.7% | 41.8% | 1134 | ↓ low |