Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Chronos Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 25.0% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 39.0% | -7.0 |
| Fire Exia | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +0.8 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flared Iridescence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |