Water FractalTier 1
at Chronos Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 25.0% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 61.0% | +7.0 |
| Fire Exia | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 12.5% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.4% | -7.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.8 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Return to the Archive | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 |