← Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Revelfest Box Tournament @ Taps Games
Fire OblationTier 1
at Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Revelfest Box Tournament @ Taps Games
decks
2
(13.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
7-1-0
overall winrate
87.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.4%
avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
58.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1292
· median 1292
· range 1191–1393
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1096
Q1 1189
Q3 1297
1414
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 13.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +2.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Fire Suited | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Wind Byakko | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 52.7% | +2.6 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
