← Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Revelfest Box Tournament @ Taps Games
Water AetherwingTier 2
at Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Revelfest Box Tournament @ Taps Games
decks
2
(13.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.9%
avg ELO -1.6 per match
expected value
45.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1264
· median 1264
· range 1190–1338
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1096
Q1 1189
Q3 1297
1414
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Wind Byakko | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.1 |
