← Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Revelfest Box Tournament @ Taps Games
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Grand Archive Phantom Monarchs Revelfest Box Tournament @ Taps Games
decks
1
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
2
0-2-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.3%
avg ELO -3.5 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1232
· median 1232
· range 1232–1232
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1096
Q1 1189
Q3 1297
1414
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.1 |
| Wind Neos | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
