PTM Store Championship LMCafe

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Water Astra Ranger	Tier 1	2	16.7%	5-3-1	61.1%	56.2%	52.9%	51.9%	1325	↑ top
2		Water Fractal	Tier 1	2	16.7%	6-5-0	54.5%	52.1%	52.1%	51.7%	1277	—
3		Fire Aetherwing	Tier 2	1	8.3%	1-4-0	20.0%	33.1%	44.0%	43.9%	1204	↓ low
4		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 1	1	8.3%	2-1-2	60.0%	59.3%	53.3%	54.2%	1290	—
5		Fire Oblation	Tier 2	1	8.3%	1-3-0	25.0%	36.5%	43.3%	43.6%	1312	↑ top
6		Fire Umbra Guardian	Tier 2	1	8.3%	0-5-0	0.0%	25.2%	40.0%	41.0%	1135	↓ low
7		Horse and Taxes	Tier 1	1	8.3%	6-0-0	100.0%	69.8%	67.2%	61.6%	1478	↑ top
8		Water Allies	Tier 2	1	8.3%	2-2-0	50.0%	54.7%	46.7%	49.2%	1177	↓ low
9		Water Genbu	Tier 2	1	8.3%	2-1-2	60.0%	54.8%	50.0%	50.3%	1265	—
10		Water Ravishing Mill	Tier 2	1	8.3%	2-2-0	50.0%	54.7%	46.7%	49.2%	1177	↓ low
11		Wind Allies	Tier 2	1	8.3%	1-2-1	37.5%	46.4%	46.0%	47.2%	1183	↓ low

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Water Astra Ranger 2 decks · 16.7%
• Water Fractal 2 decks · 16.7%
• Fire Aetherwing 1 deck · 8.3%
• Fire Crux Mage 1 deck · 8.3%
• Fire Oblation 1 deck · 8.3%
• Fire Umbra Guardian 1 deck · 8.3%
• Horse and Taxes 1 deck · 8.3%
• Water Allies 1 deck · 8.3%
• Water Genbu 1 deck · 8.3%
• Water Ravishing Mill 1 deck · 8.3%
• Wind Allies 1 deck · 8.3%