← PTM Store Championship LMCafe
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PTM Store Championship LMCafe.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 100.0% | 69.8% | 67.2% | 61.6% | 1478 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 59.3% | 53.3% | 54.2% | 1290 | — |
| 3 | Water Astra Ranger | 2 | 16.7% | 9 | 61.1% | 56.2% | 52.9% | 51.9% | 1325 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Fractal | 2 | 16.7% | 11 | 54.5% | 52.1% | 52.1% | 51.7% | 1277 | — |
| 5 | Water Genbu | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 54.8% | 50.0% | 50.3% | 1265 | — |
| 6 | Water Allies | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 54.7% | 46.7% | 49.2% | 1177 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 54.7% | 46.7% | 49.2% | 1177 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Allies | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 37.5% | 46.4% | 46.0% | 47.2% | 1183 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 20.0% | 33.1% | 44.0% | 43.9% | 1204 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 36.5% | 43.3% | 43.6% | 1312 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 0.0% | 25.2% | 40.0% | 41.0% | 1135 | ↓ low |