← Grand Archive TCG - RDO Standard @ Evergreen Games Shoppe
Water FractalTier 2
at Grand Archive TCG - RDO Standard @ Evergreen Games Shoppe
decks
2
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
1-4-2
overall winrate
28.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.6%
avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
45.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1186
· median 1186
· range 1179–1192
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1085
Q1 1181
Q3 1233
1289
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luxem Mordred | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.9 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.5 |
| Slimes | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
