← GA Middle East Weekly RDO #1

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GA Middle East Weekly RDO #1. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Aetherwing 1 11.1% 2 100.0% 51.9% 60.0% 51.2% 1378 ↑ top
2 Wind Alice 1 11.1% 3 66.7% 50.5% 55.0% 50.4% 1313
3 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 11.1% 3 66.7% 50.3% 52.5% 50.1% 1379 ↑ top
4 Fire Umbra Guardian 2 22.2% 6 58.3% 49.4% 51.7% 49.8% 1424 ↑ top
5 Fire Crux Mage 1 11.1% 3 50.0% 50.8% 47.5% 50.3% 1134 ↓ low
6 Water Exia 1 11.1% 2 50.0% 50.1% 46.7% 49.9% 1369 ↑ top
7 Fire Luxem Mordred 1 11.1% 3 0.0% 48.8% 40.0% 49.4% 1196 ↓ low
8 Wind Shadowstrike 1 11.1% 2 0.0% 48.6% 40.0% 49.3% 1170 ↓ low