Water GenbuTier 1
at 貓腳印雄二店 Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 12.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 8.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -3.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 34.5% | -14.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.5% | +4.4 |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -3.1 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 6 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 6 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shademist Priestess | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |