← RDO Store Champs - Card Merchant
Water FractalTier 1
at RDO Store Champs - Card Merchant
decks
1
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
65.8%
avg ELO +9.1 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1273
· median 1273
· range 1273–1273
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
921
Q1 1210
Q3 1413
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.9 |
| Fire Arcane Rai | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
