Water FractalTier 2
at KYD RDO Store Champion
decks
1
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.8%
avg ELO -4.2 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1174
· median 1174
· range 1174–1174
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1074
Q1 1236
Q3 1427
1618
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 15.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 10.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.7% | -9.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Suited | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.8 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exalted Alice | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.4 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
