← Michigan RDO Regionals

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Michigan RDO Regionals. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd
Water Genbu
57.9%
2.0% share · 6 matches
↑ top
1st
Water Crux Mage
58.9%
2.0% share · 6 matches
↑ top
3rd
Fire Crux Mage
57.7%
5.9% share · 19 matches
#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Crux Mage 1 2.0% 6 75.0% 60.7% 58.9% 55.6% 1390 ↑ top
2 Water Genbu 1 2.0% 6 91.7% 52.1% 57.9% 49.9% 1750 ↑ top
3 Fire Crux Mage 3 5.9% 19 76.3% 71.4% 57.7% 56.9% 1248 —
4 Wind Slimes 1 2.0% 6 75.0% 61.0% 57.5% 55.7% 1340 ↑ top
5 Water Exia 1 2.0% 6 75.0% 54.1% 57.0% 53.0% 1436 ↑ top
6 Fire Oblation 2 3.9% 12 66.7% 51.3% 56.3% 52.3% 1371 ↑ top
7 Fire Exia 3 5.9% 18 63.9% 63.2% 54.7% 56.1% 1248 —
8 Fire Crux Lorraine 2 3.9% 12 54.2% 59.8% 52.5% 54.1% 1156 ↓ low
9 Wind Luxem Assassin 2 3.9% 12 54.2% 45.7% 51.6% 48.9% 1323 ↑ top
10 Wind Razorgale 2 3.9% 12 62.5% 57.3% 51.3% 51.1% 1299 ↑ top
11 Fire Slimes 5 9.8% 26 55.8% 51.4% 50.3% 48.9% 1283 —
12 Fire Crux Merlin 1 2.0% 6 50.0% 49.8% 50.0% 49.8% 1269 —
13 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 2.0% 6 75.0% 50.2% 50.0% 45.7% 1540 ↑ top
14 Rogue 1 2.0% 6 50.0% 45.4% 49.2% 48.1% 1310 ↑ top
15 Water Fractal 1 2.0% 6 33.3% 49.4% 48.9% 52.0% 1090 ↓ low
16 Water Astra Ranger 1 2.0% 7 50.0% 52.5% 48.5% 50.0% 1217 —
17 Slimes 1 2.0% 6 58.3% 64.9% 48.3% 52.3% 1214 —
18 Fire Aggro 2 3.9% 13 50.0% 59.4% 47.8% 51.4% 1146 ↓ low
19 Fire Tera Mage 1 2.0% 6 50.0% 56.9% 47.7% 50.5% 1159 ↓ low
20 Wind Umbra Ranger 1 2.0% 6 50.0% 49.8% 47.5% 47.9% 1192 —
21 Dawn of Ashes 1 2.0% 7 28.6% 46.9% 46.7% 50.0% 1123 ↓ low
22 Wind Seiryuu 1 2.0% 7 42.9% 47.1% 46.7% 46.6% 1245 —
23 Fire Umbra Alice 1 2.0% 6 41.7% 47.4% 46.2% 47.7% 1199 —
24 Horse and Taxes 1 2.0% 6 50.0% 53.3% 46.2% 48.4% 1163 ↓ low
25 Chess 1 2.0% 6 41.7% 49.8% 45.6% 48.1% 1125 ↓ low
26 Water Tera Mage 1 2.0% 6 41.7% 40.1% 45.0% 43.4% 1285 —
27 Water Aetherwing 1 2.0% 7 28.6% 47.7% 44.4% 48.2% 1045 ↓ low
28 Water Suited 1 2.0% 6 41.7% 45.1% 44.3% 45.0% 1177 ↓ low
29 Fire Suited 3 5.9% 16 37.5% 39.7% 43.5% 45.0% 1232 —
30 Water Penguin Mill 1 2.0% 6 25.0% 27.9% 43.3% 41.1% 1236 —
31 Water Umbra Alice 1 2.0% 6 25.0% 27.9% 43.3% 41.1% 1236 —
32 Wind Silvie 1 2.0% 5 20.0% 31.9% 43.3% 42.8% 1148 ↓ low
33 Wind Tera Kongming 1 2.0% 5 20.0% 45.8% 41.8% 47.0% 967 ↓ low
34 Water Neos 2 3.9% 11 18.2% 31.2% 41.1% 43.6% 1140 ↓ low
35 Water Exalted Mordred 1 2.0% 4 0.0% 33.7% 40.0% 43.5% 959 ↓ low
36 Wind Luxem Zander 1 2.0% 5 0.0% 29.6% 36.7% 40.9% 1068 ↓ low