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Fire Crux MageTier 2
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Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 59.1% | +8.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.9% | -13.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.2% | +10.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Chess | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.1% | -20.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Fire Alice | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Mordred | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Water Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cauterizing Seraphim | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Angel Attendant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Suffocating Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Facet the Forgotten | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lavastorm | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sabela, Gossamer Penance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Protect Her At All Costs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |