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Fire Crux MageTier 2

at ⛵ Flagship Games RDO Store Championship

decks
4 (9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18 7-10-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.0% avg ELO -2.3 per match
expected value
48.0% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1290 · median 1298 · range 1162–1403 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1073 Q1 1172 Q3 1379 1556
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Aetherwing 9.1% 0
Water Fractal 9.1% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 59.1% +8.8
Fire Oblation 6.8% 0
Wind Razorgale 6.8% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 35.9% -13.5
Fire Crux Lorraine 4.5% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.1% -0.9
Fire Firebloom Burn 4.5% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 61.2% +10.8
Fire Slimes 4.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.2% -15.7
Water Genbu 4.5% 0
Wind Allies 4.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.2% +9.9
Chess 2.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.1% -20.6
Fire Aetherwing 2.3% 0
Fire Aggro 2.3% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 53.9% +6.3
Fire Alice 2.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.6% -10.3
Fire Suited 2.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.3% -17.0
Fire Suzaku 2.3% 0
Fire Umbra Guardian 2.3% 0
Water Astra Ranger 2.3% 0
Water Luxem Assassin 2.3% 0
Water Luxem Mordred 2.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.2% +6.7
Water Suited 2.3% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 2.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.7% -8.5
Wind Seiryuu 2.3% 0
Wind Shadowstrike 2.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.1% +9.8
Wind Umbra Ranger 2.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.1% -12.7
Wind Wakeup Combo 2.3% 0
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Fragmented Spirit of Fire -1.00 0 1 0
Cauterizing Seraphim +1.00 1 0 0
Spirit of Fire +1.00 1 0 0
Angel Attendant -1.00 0 1 0
Liminal Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Expel the Departed +1.00 1 0 0
Sword of Seeking -1.00 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +1.00 1 0 0
Crux Sight +1.00 1 0 0
Cremation Ritual +1.00 1 0 0
Suffocating Ash -1.00 0 1 0
Crystallized Destiny -1.00 0 1 0
Varuckan Acolyte +1.00 1 0 0
Spirit Blade: Ascension +1.00 1 0 0
Facet the Forgotten -1.00 0 1 0
Lavastorm -1.00 0 1 0
Drawn Blade -1.00 0 1 0
Tariff Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Disenchant -1.00 0 1 0
Sabela, Gossamer Penance -1.00 0 1 0
Protect Her At All Costs +1.00 1 0 0
Prismatic Edge +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/51529/archetypes/Fire Crux Mage