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Fire OblationTier 2
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Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 2.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.7 |
| Fire Alice | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Mordred | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 5 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 5 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Undeniable Truth | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |