EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Pi RDO SC .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Razorgale | 2 | 14.3% | 8 | 75.0% | 55.7% | 58.3% | 54.0% | 1379 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 75.0% | 66.8% | 56.7% | 58.6% | 1163 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 75.0% | 68.7% | 53.3% | 56.7% | 1199 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 62.5% | 61.8% | 51.7% | 54.1% | 1131 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 14.3% | 6 | 66.7% | 51.8% | 50.7% | 47.6% | 1419 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 37.5% | 44.1% | 47.5% | 47.7% | 1146 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Exia | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 37.5% | 40.5% | 47.5% | 46.2% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 37.5% | 43.0% | 47.3% | 47.3% | 1350 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Water Exalted Mordred | 1 | 7.1% | 2 | 25.0% | 47.2% | 43.3% | 47.6% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 7.1% | 3 | 16.7% | 42.2% | 42.5% | 46.3% | 1209 | — |
| 11 | Water Fractal | 2 | 14.3% | 5 | 0.0% | 26.2% | 37.3% | 40.3% | 1210 | — |