Water FractalTier 2
at 塔普卡 RDO賽季店冠賽
decks
2
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-5-0
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.4%
avg ELO -3.5 per match
expected value
45.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1234
· median 1234
· range 1137–1330
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1228
Q3 1401
1535
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.8% | -15.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.2% | -12.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.9% | +25.5 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -21.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Mordred | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
