Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at 貓腳印 淡水店 RDO 店家賽
decks
1
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-1-2
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.8%
avg ELO +5.3 per match
expected value
56.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1441
· median 1441
· range 1441–1441
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1121
Q1 1262
Q3 1402
1539
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 11.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Water Fractal | 7.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.0% | -8.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
