Water FractalTier 1
at 貓腳印 淡水店 RDO 店家賽
decks
2
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-4-2
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.8%
avg ELO -2.2 per match
expected value
51.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1393
· median 1393
· range 1257–1528
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1121
Q1 1262
Q3 1402
1539
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 15.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.4% | -7.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 11.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 32.1% | -13.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Water Genbu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.0% | +7.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
