← MVP X RDO Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at MVP X RDO Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Razorgale | 3 | 13.6% | 16 | 71.9% | 69.9% | 57.0% | 58.3% | 1340 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 13.6% | 14 | 75.0% | 56.8% | 56.9% | 52.4% | 1433 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Tera Kongming | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 61.6% | 52.0% | 54.2% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 54.1% | 50.9% | 50.8% | 1375 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 9.1% | 7 | 42.9% | 43.5% | 48.0% | 46.0% | 1289 | — |
| 6 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 36.4% | 48.0% | 45.4% | 1280 | — |
| 7 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 50.7% | 47.5% | 50.1% | 1212 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 4.5% | 4 | 50.0% | 56.2% | 46.7% | 49.5% | 1223 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 46.5% | 46.7% | 44.9% | 1404 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 30.0% | 47.1% | 45.6% | 48.8% | 1154 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Fractal | 3 | 13.6% | 11 | 40.9% | 50.5% | 45.2% | 47.6% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 4.5% | 4 | 37.5% | 35.3% | 43.8% | 41.1% | 1466 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Wind Ravishing Mill | 1 | 4.5% | 5 | 10.0% | 31.2% | 40.6% | 42.7% | 1131 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 29.1% | 40.0% | 39.7% | 1163 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 4.5% | 2 | 0.0% | 43.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | 1148 | ↓ low |