← MVP X RDO Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at MVP X RDO Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Razorgale 3 13.6% 16 71.9% 69.9% 57.0% 58.3% 1340 ↑ top
2 Wind Seiryuu 3 13.6% 14 75.0% 56.8% 56.9% 52.4% 1433 ↑ top
3 Water Tera Kongming 1 4.5% 5 60.0% 61.6% 52.0% 54.2% 1207 ↓ low
4 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 4.5% 5 60.0% 54.1% 50.9% 50.8% 1375 ↑ top
5 Fire Slimes 2 9.1% 7 42.9% 43.5% 48.0% 46.0% 1289
6 Water Tera Mage 1 4.5% 5 40.0% 36.4% 48.0% 45.4% 1280
7 Fire Aetherwing 1 4.5% 5 40.0% 50.7% 47.5% 50.1% 1212 ↓ low
8 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 4.5% 4 50.0% 56.2% 46.7% 49.5% 1223 ↓ low
9 Water Aetherwing 1 4.5% 5 60.0% 46.5% 46.7% 44.9% 1404 ↑ top
10 Wind Slimes 1 4.5% 5 30.0% 47.1% 45.6% 48.8% 1154 ↓ low
11 Water Fractal 3 13.6% 11 40.9% 50.5% 45.2% 47.6% 1175 ↓ low
12 Water Crux Assassin 1 4.5% 4 37.5% 35.3% 43.8% 41.1% 1466 ↑ top
13 Wind Ravishing Mill 1 4.5% 5 10.0% 31.2% 40.6% 42.7% 1131 ↓ low
14 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 4.5% 3 0.0% 29.1% 40.0% 39.7% 1163 ↓ low
15 Fire Oblation 1 4.5% 2 0.0% 43.0% 40.0% 45.8% 1148 ↓ low