EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at RDO Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 5 | 21.7% | 17 | 85.3% | 69.6% | 59.2% | 56.9% | 1395 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Genbu | 1 | 4.3% | 2 | 50.0% | 47.4% | 53.3% | 50.3% | 1304 | — |
| 3 | Water Allies | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 37.5% | 42.7% | 52.9% | 51.9% | 1247 | — |
| 4 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 4.3% | 3 | 66.7% | 53.9% | 50.0% | 49.3% | 1320 | — |
| 5 | Water Fractal | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 52.8% | 50.0% | 52.7% | 1147 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 50.0% | 60.4% | 47.0% | 51.0% | 1088 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 8.7% | 9 | 38.9% | 47.7% | 45.9% | 49.0% | 1214 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 4.3% | 3 | 66.7% | 50.4% | 45.7% | 45.3% | 1388 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 4.3% | 3 | 66.7% | 69.0% | 45.7% | 53.0% | 1062 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 4.3% | 2 | 50.0% | 46.6% | 43.3% | 42.5% | 1485 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Oblation | 4 | 17.4% | 6 | 16.7% | 30.7% | 41.8% | 41.1% | 1262 | — |
| 12 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 4.3% | 1 | 0.0% | 39.5% | 40.0% | 39.5% | 1338 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 4.3% | 2 | 0.0% | 37.6% | 40.0% | 42.1% | 1291 | — |
| 14 | Water Exia | 1 | 4.3% | 2 | 0.0% | 30.7% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 1190 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Water Whirlpool Mill | 1 | 4.3% | 2 | 0.0% | 30.7% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 1190 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 4.3% | 3 | 33.3% | 48.0% | 37.8% | 42.8% | 1175 | ↓ low |