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Fire OblationTier 1
at Hobby Lords Radiant Origins Store Championship
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.3% | -4.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.7% | +17.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Golden Checkmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tune Up | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Angelic Channeling | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Folded Shadows | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |