← Hobby Lords Radiant Origins Store Championship
Water AetherwingTier 2
at Hobby Lords Radiant Origins Store Championship
decks
1
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.8%
avg ELO -8.2 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1374
· median 1374
· range 1374–1374
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1029
Q1 1159
Q3 1297
1482
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 26.9% | -22.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Aetherwing decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
