Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Store Championship
decks
2
(8.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-1-6
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.2%
avg ELO +1.9 per match
expected value
51.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1297
· median 1297
· range 1169–1425
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1011
Q1 1163
Q3 1354
1425
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 8.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
| Chess | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.2 |
| Fire Exia | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Luxem Mordred | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Alice | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.7 |
