Horse and TaxesTier 1
at Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 8.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Chess | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Exia | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Mordred | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Alice | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Wind Neos | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 19 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Return to the Archive | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lavasoul Tiger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lavaheated Brew | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |