Water ExiaTier 1
at Store Championship
decks
1
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
4-1-0
overall winrate
80.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.9%
avg ELO +5.7 per match
expected value
55.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1369
· median 1369
· range 1369–1369
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1011
Q1 1163
Q3 1354
1425
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Chess | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Mordred | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Alice | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
