Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Store Championships
decks
2
(13.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
6-4-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
67.3%
avg ELO +7.8 per match
expected value
52.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1202
· median 1202
· range 1145–1259
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083
Q1 1243
Q3 1489
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 13.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.5% | +20.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 13.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.5% | -14.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 13.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.1% | +22.6 |
| Fire Crescendo | 6.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.5% | +20.7 |
| Fire Suited | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Water Genbu | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
