Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Store Championships
decks
2
(13.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
3-4-1
overall winrate
43.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.3%
avg ELO -7.0 per match
expected value
48.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1475
· median 1475
· range 1404–1547
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083
Q1 1243
Q3 1489
1702
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 13.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.9% | -22.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Fire Crescendo | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Slimes | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.5 |
| Water Genbu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 6.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
