Fire ExiaTier 2
at 貓腳印三民店 Store Champion
decks
2
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-5-2
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.1%
avg ELO +2.3 per match
expected value
45.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1131
· median 1131
· range 1115–1147
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1096
Q1 1145
Q3 1318
1523
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Water Fractal | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.5% | +7.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exalted Alice | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +3.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
