Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at 貓腳印三民店 Store Champion
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Water Fractal | 12.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.2% | +4.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.7% | +3.5 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.4% | -5.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.3 |
| Water Exalted Alice | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Void's Cloak | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Return to the Archive | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Accursed Strength | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Obsequious Blow | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Angel Attendant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Grande Aiguille | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Benediction Angel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Abnegation | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spring Cleaning | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |