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Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2

at 貓腳印三民店 Store Champion

decks
4 (16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15 8-6-1
overall winrate
56.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.2% avg ELO +4.5 per match
expected value
49.2% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.1% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1227 · median 1199 · range 1116–1392 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1096 Q1 1145 Q3 1318 1523
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Razorgale 16.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.4% -12.2
Water Fractal 12.5% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 57.2% +4.6
Fire Crux Lorraine 8.3% 0
Fire Exia 8.3% 0
Fire Oblation 4.2% 0
Fire Slimes 4.2% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 54.7% +3.5
Water Allies 4.2% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 44.4% -5.4
Water Crux Mage 4.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.0% +14.3
Water Exalted Alice 4.2% 0
Water Genbu 4.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.2% -7.7
Wind Arcane 4.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.6% +18.6
Wind Astra Cleric 4.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.6% +17.0
Wind Seiryuu 4.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 62.2% +19.5
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Void's Cloak +1.00 2 0 0
Reduce to Ash -1.00 0 2 0
Spirit of Fire +1.00 2 0 0
Return to the Archive +1.00 2 0 0
Accursed Strength +1.00 2 0 0
Heavenly Guide -1.00 0 2 0
Demolition +1.00 2 0 0
Gentle Respite -1.00 0 2 0
Stalwart Shieldmate +1.00 2 0 0
Crystallized Destiny -1.00 0 2 0
Spirit of Serene Fire -1.00 0 2 0
Tariff Ring -1.00 0 2 0
Obsequious Blow -0.50 0 1 0
Heavy Swing +0.50 1 0 1
Angel Attendant -0.50 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket -0.50 0 1 0
Undeniable Truth +0.50 1 0 1
Grande Aiguille -0.50 0 1 0
Flamme Sorcel -0.50 0 1 1
Peaceful Reunion -0.50 0 1 0
Umbra Sight +0.50 1 0 1
Benediction Angel -0.50 0 1 0
Lost Providence -0.50 0 1 0
Inert Sword +0.50 1 0 1
Fast Cure -0.50 0 1 0
Turbo Charge +0.50 1 0 1
Safeguard Amulet -0.50 0 1 0
The Looking Glass +0.50 1 0 1
Abnegation +0.50 1 0 1
Carter, Synthetic Reaper +0.50 1 0 1
Topsy Decree +0.50 1 0 1
Fragmented Spirit of Fire -0.50 0 1 0
Spring Cleaning -0.50 0 1 0
Smoke Out -0.50 0 1 0
Immolation Trap -0.50 0 1 0
Expel the Departed +0.50 1 0 0
Flame Sweep -0.50 0 1 0
Varuckan Acolyte +0.50 1 0 0
Cremation Ritual +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/52254/archetypes/Fire Umbra Guardian