Water FractalTier 2
at 貓腳印三民店 Store Champion
decks
3
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
7-6-1
overall winrate
53.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.6%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
48.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1284
· median 1307
· range 1134–1410
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1096
Q1 1145
Q3 1318
1523
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 16.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.8% | -4.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 16.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Water Exalted Alice | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.5% | +13.9 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 38.0% | -8.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
