Fire Umbra CielTier 2
at RDO 卡庫店冠賽
decks
1
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.4%
avg ELO -4.8 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1160
· median 1160
· range 1160–1160
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1096
Q1 1215
Q3 1396
1523
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 12.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Exia | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Fire Suited | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
