← Card Merchant Ponsonby - RDO STore Champs

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Card Merchant Ponsonby - RDO STore Champs. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Aetherwing 1 10.0% 3 83.3% 61.9% 57.5% 56.8% 1412 ↑ top
2 Fire Crux Mage 1 10.0% 3 83.3% 65.1% 57.5% 58.7% 1321
3 Wind Astra Cleric 1 10.0% 3 83.3% 63.9% 57.5% 57.2% 1315
4 Water Allies 1 10.0% 3 83.3% 53.6% 56.7% 51.7% 1513 ↑ top
5 Fire Aggro 2 20.0% 6 50.0% 42.3% 50.0% 47.4% 1352
6 Fire Suited 1 10.0% 3 33.3% 43.1% 46.7% 46.8% 1396 ↑ top
7 Water Astra Ranger 1 10.0% 3 33.3% 48.6% 45.0% 48.6% 1204 ↓ low
8 Fire Umbra Ranger 1 10.0% 3 0.0% 36.5% 40.0% 43.4% 1159 ↓ low
9 Wind Seiryuu 1 10.0% 3 0.0% 38.2% 40.0% 44.2% 1169 ↓ low