EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at AJITO STORE Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 75.0% | 56.9% | 56.7% | 54.3% | 1478 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 75.0% | 51.5% | 55.5% | 50.7% | 1560 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Crux Mage | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 51.5% | 55.0% | 52.6% | 1324 | — |
| 4 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 58.3% | 51.3% | 54.6% | 52.5% | 1303 | — |
| 5 | Wind Seiryuu | 5 | 15.6% | 23 | 63.0% | 52.4% | 53.6% | 49.8% | 1355 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 51.5% | 53.3% | 54.2% | 1226 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 3.1% | 7 | 71.4% | 63.3% | 52.9% | 54.2% | 1372 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Aetherwing | 4 | 12.5% | 19 | 55.3% | 54.7% | 51.6% | 51.1% | 1304 | — |
| 9 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 50.0% | 45.7% | 51.5% | 49.0% | 1455 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Wind Shadowstrike | 4 | 12.5% | 18 | 58.3% | 53.8% | 51.1% | 52.4% | 1354 | — |
| 11 | Fire Suited | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 65.0% | 49.3% | 55.9% | 1247 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 66.7% | 62.9% | 48.9% | 51.1% | 1292 | — |
| 13 | Water Exia | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 30.0% | 44.1% | 45.5% | 48.2% | 1231 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Whirlpool Mill | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 30.0% | 44.1% | 45.5% | 48.2% | 1231 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 20.0% | 42.4% | 45.0% | 48.1% | 1185 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 33.3% | 41.7% | 44.0% | 44.3% | 1240 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Genbu | 2 | 6.2% | 7 | 35.7% | 44.0% | 43.9% | 46.8% | 1269 | — |
| 18 | Wind Umbra Alice | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 48.2% | 43.3% | 45.8% | 1191 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 30.0% | 49.7% | 43.0% | 48.9% | 1095 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 3.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 35.2% | 40.0% | 41.1% | 1212 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Water Tera Cleric | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 10.0% | 35.0% | 38.3% | 42.6% | 1136 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Water Tera Diao Chan | 1 | 3.1% | 4 | 0.0% | 26.7% | 35.2% | 36.7% | 1132 | ↓ low |