Fire Crux MageTier 2
at 2026/05/02 RiRiCO 店冠賽
decks
2
(10.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
3-7-1
overall winrate
31.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.2%
avg ELO -2.1 per match
expected value
44.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1276
· median 1276
· range 1128–1423
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1095
Q1 1271
Q3 1411
1694
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 15.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +3.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 10.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.2% | -0.8 |
| Water Neos | 10.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.4% | -3.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
